Hi guys, this is Flowingcloud with my first shower thought post. This is inevitable going to be some ranting and incoherent thoughts, but this is somewhat of my own personal mahjong blog as well. I thought it would be good to write out in text to explain my thoughts on mahjong-related topics once in a while.
Learning From Pros episode 2 will come out this weekend btw.
Today, I wanted to approach the topic of folding from a more traditional perspective. Personally speaking, roughly 50-60% (just a ballpark number) of hands are going to end up becoming a fold, yet the willingness to fold due to “certain justifications”, which are just excuses not to fold in my opinion, is really unfathomable at this point in my mahjong journey.
Yes, I used to be a bozo push machine, but now I am a folding machine. Part of the reason I compromised is due to the following concept:
Reality vs Ideals
Funny enough, this is through a novel I read where I eventually came to the conclusion one with needs to compromise ideals with reality. This is relatively similar to the English phrase: “Compromise with reality.” However, what does that actually mean? Let’s just approach my super generic general fold guidelines.
Cloudy Fold Guidelines (Does not account for mawashi.)
-2+ shanten (away from tenpai) when there is a riichi.
-Your hand has no value.
-Need to push dora or tiles near dora.
-Need to push tiles near the riichi declaration tile.
-Open dora pon.
-Honitsu/Chinitsu showing with clear (or even potential) mangan value.
One of the biggest gripes of mahjong players is not respecting the early riichi. If you do not have the value to compete, why are you pushing? On average, a hand is worth roughly 5,600 points (in aka-ari), and early riichis with no dora visable are generally worth 6000+ points. Even if you somehow see 3 dora, the hand is still roughly avg 5000 points for an early riichi. (The stats mentioned are taken from Path to Houou blog and Osamuko blog and refer to deal-in to non-dealer.)
Thus, given this knowledge, I am unsure why players are still unwilling to fold. I do not like the argument of “I’m dealer”, and somehow forget the basics of mahjong and push yolo tiles with sad value. Maybe dealer mangan you push? Would depend on the situation.
Let’s say there’s a turn 8 riichi and you’re 2-shanten (two from tenpai) with three ryanmens (two-sided waits). You drop your safe tiles, and now you have to push two live tiles. According to the “I’m dealer argument”, you would push, however, how many tiles do you need to push? Two minimum, and that does not account for the amount of live tiles you’ll draw in the future as well. Most likely, you’ll be pushing somewhere around three live tiles into a non-dealer riichi, but that’s pretty bad as hand values scale on average over time. Assuming you have information to roughly two dora tiles (those in your hand), the average deal-in is 6000+ points (basically easily mangan).
The same can be said for the above situation even at iishanten (one from tenpai) with two ryanmen. You might have to push a lot of live tiles before you achieve tenpai.
The point I want to make is, realistically speaking, most situations you won’t be able to achieve tenpai without dealing in. Maybe your yolo push works once in a while, but that just makes you a gambler who likes playing slots. You’ll maybe win in the short-run, but over the long-run, you’re bound to lose no matter what.
So, after all this ranting, why do people want to push so much? I can maybe chalk it up to not understanding the numbers. Or perhaps, mahjong is just a casual fun game for people so they don’t care. Mahjong is a pretty un-interactive game when you’re folding most of the time. Perhaps, players do not have the self-control and the voices in the mind just tell them to push when they probably should not. Additionally, the Snake Shack believers have spread the cult to people that folding is negative EV, and it has been completely taken out of context by intermediate players as justification to push for fun against riichis or dangerous hands.
Personally speaking, I believe that they see a few “good” players just aggressively push, and try to imitate their playstyle without their advanced understanding of the game. Also, the English-speaking community has a huge emphasis on dealership, but that also baits people into recklessly pushing on their dealership at times. It could also be that they’re mad someone pushed against their riichi and won of them, and now they want to get them back. I honestly do not know, but the community could definitely fold a bit more.
Of course, don’t fold against me. I need you to deal into me for points. Thanks.